Everything you need to know about the upcoming presidential elections in Latin America (2025)
- LatamSinFiltro
- Sep 30
- 8 min read
Bolivia - Second round of presidential election, October 19, 2025
→ Results of the first round
The first round of presidential election in Bolivia was held on August 17, 2025.
The Christian Democratic Party (PDC, right), represented by Rodrigo Paz Pereira, came in first with 32.06% of the vote. The LIBRE alliance (center-left), represented by former president Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga won 26.70% of the vote. MAS, the left-wing party of President Luis Arce and former President Evo Morales, represented by Eduardo del Castillo, received only 3.17% of the vote.
First round results → 202 National Election Results
Official results - presidential election (%)
Another interesting figure: spoiled ballot represents 19.87% of all votes → Why was the invalid vote so high? Well, it probably has to do with Evo Morales…
→ Internal divisions within the MAS weaken the left
Since 2021, when Luis Arce became president of Bolivia, members of MAS have had many disagreements. Tensions arose between the party's chairman and former Bolivian president, Evo Morales (2006-2019), and President Arce. The two men disagree on how to manage the country.
From 2024 onwards, their relationship deteriorated further: in December 2024, Morales was accused of human trafficking and an arrest warrant was issued against him. The former president denounced "political persecution" by the Arce government and claimed that these accusations were part of Luis Arce's strategy to prevent him from participating in the 2025 election. Indeed, according to the Bolivian Constitution, the same person cannot not run for re-election twice, and Morales had already been re-elected in 2015. Faced with this, Evo Morales called for a protest, and a group of his supporters prevented the authorities from arresting him.
In February 2025, Evo Morales officially announced his resignation from MAS to join the party Front for Victory (FPV) and run for office. Morales strongly insisted on his eligibility, thus completely denying the Constitution. The Electoral Supreme Court of Bolivia vetoed his candidacy.
Following this decision, demonstrations with roadblocks were organized across the country by Morales supporters to put pressure on the authorities.
Evo Morales and his supporters are calling for the resignation of President Arce, whose government has opened an investigation against him, accused of "terrorism", among others. Evo Morales ultimately encouraged the use of invalid votes in the election, which explains its high (but ineffective) percentage in the first round.
The Bolivian left has been weakened by those different events and has lost its credibility.
→ The right is back in the saddle again
Without a doubt, the tensions within the left have favored the right which had been marginalized for several decades by the hegemony of the MAS at the head of the country. The popularity and economic success of the left in the early 2000s can be partly explained by the commodities supercycle and by rising gas prices (Bolivia is one of the largest gas producers in the region).
However, in 2025, Bolivia is now experimenting an energy crisis and an economic crisis, especially due to its dollar shortage. The left is no longer popular.
While the MAS is on the edge of the abyss, the right is in the spotlight.
Bolivia is entering a new era. For the first time since the end of the 20th century, the new Bolivian president will not be from a left-wing party, which implies several structural changes.
Honduras - November 30, 2025
The presidential election will take place on November 30, 2025. Several positions are at stake: President, 128 seats in Congress, 20 seats in the Central American Parliament, 298 mayors and 2,092 municipal councilors.
→ Guaranteeing democratic, peaceful and transparent election
The upcoming election will be crucial to determine whether Honduras' National Electoral Council (CNE) is still functional and transparent.
Indeed, during the March 2025 primaries, several problems arose. Honduran citizens were unable to vote simultaneously because several polling stations did not have the necessary equipment on election day. In addition, the CNE was completely discredited because of a conflict between its members. The election was paralyzed, and the CNE was unable to even publish the results in time.
The CNE in Honduras is controlled by the country’s three main parties: Nacional, Liberal and Libre which can obviously lead to conflicts of interest between the different members of the Council and harm the independence of the institution.
Another issue to consider when it comes to elections in Honduras: political violence. The Report on political violence published in 2022 by the National Observatory of Violence (ONV) indicates that several homicides are committed during each election organized, in particular because there is little trust in institutions and the announced results. Following the announcement of the results of the 2017 presidential election, 38 homicides were committed (ONV, 2022). The report also states that:
Since the National Electoral Council (CNE) called the 2021 elections, which took place from December 23, 2020, to January 27, 2022, the day of the inauguration of President Iris Xiomara Castro de Zelaya, 114 cases of political violence have been reported. 27.2% (31) of these cases occurred between December 23, 2020, and March 14, 2021, date of the primaries.
→ The candidates
There are officially five presidential candidates. Here are the candidates from Honduras' three major parties:
Libre: Rixi Moncada, Minister of Defense in the government of Xiomara Castro (current President of Honduras).
Liberal: Salvador Nasralla, former journalist and Xiomara Castro's vice president until 2024.
National : Nasry Asfura, former mayor of Tegucigalpa from 2014 to 2022.
→ The challenges
Security and corruption issues are the two major issues of political debate in Honduras. While the homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants has been declining since 2021, it remains high: 27 homicides per 100,000 inhabitants in 2024 (Police Statistics Department, 2025). Furthermore, corruption exacerbates citizens' distrust of state institutions.
Economically, Honduras is one of the poorest countries in Latin America. Nearly 13% of its population lives below the poverty line (less than US$2.15 per day) (World Bank, 2025).
Honduras needs structural reforms to ensure democratic elections, eradicate corruption, and provide Hondurans with better jobs and access to social services.
Chile - November 16, 2025
→ Results of Gabriel Boric's government
Boric’s party, Frente Amplio, brings together several left-wing movements, making it somewhat difficult to reach a consensus among all members. Furthermore, Gabriel Boric had to make numerous compromises to successfully implement his laws; the Parliament was deeply divided, and President Boric had to negotiate several times with the center and the right. Boric had great difficulty keeping the promises he had made to his voters.
Among the Boric government's failures are the drafting of a new constitution, which was rejected twice, in 2022 and 2023, and its failure to reduce Chile's independence to the mining sector. Chile's economy is still based on an extractivist model, even if Gabriel Boric has made this model “greener”, by favoring, for example, the lithium industry, an essential resource for the manufacture of electric car batteries. In December 2023, Chile and the European Union also updated the terms of the European Green Deal to include new environmental clauses and encourage European investment in renewable energy in Chile.
Perhaps the biggest failure of the Boric government is its handling of the insecurity issue. Although the President signed into law in January 2025 the creation of the Ministry of Public Security, which aims to "safeguard, maintain and promote security and public order” and ensure “the prevention of crime and the protection of persons”(Ministry of the Interior, 2025), the results have not been that positive.
The homicide rate per 100,000 inhabitants has stagnated. According to the National Urban Survey on Citizen Security (ENUSC), conducted at the end of 2024 by the National Institute of Statistics (INE) and the Ministry of Public Security, 87.7% of Chileans perceive an increase in crime (INE, 2025). Furthermore, figures from the National Police show a 12% increase in reports in 2024 compared to 2023 (INE, 2025).
Despite advances in workers' rights and social policy, such as reducing the working day, increasing the minimum wage and revising pension eligibility, Gabriel Boric's disapproval rate in September 2025 stands at 61% (Cadem, 2025).
→ Candidates
8 candidates are registered on the electoral list, among them:
Jeannette Alejandra Jara Román from the Communist Party (left): Former Minister of Labor under Boric. Although her party is not that popular, Jeannette Jara leads the polls for the first round with 26% of the vote (Cadem, 2025). This is probably the first time that a communist candidate has a real chance of reaching the second round. Jeannette Jara's program is quite close to Boric's; her victory would not lead to major structural changes in Chile.
José Antonio Kast Rist: former member of the Independent Democratic Union Party (traditional right) who founded the Republican Party in 2018 (radical right, I guess? or at least more to the right than the traditional one!).
Rist lost the 2021 presidential election against Gabriel Boric, but in 2025, his party has now more notoriety. According to the polls, he is just behind Jeannette Jara and he is the number one adversary of the Chilean left. Kast Rist advocates a minor role for the State in the economy and is morally conservative. The issue of immigration is also a central topic in his program.
Johannes Maximilien Barents-Von Hohenhagen: He is a far right candidate. Kaiser's ideas are more radical than Kast's. Kaiser is in favor of militarizing the country's northern borders and wants to declare the state emergency in several Chilean provinces due to insecurity. He wants to drastically reduce public spending and further liberalize the market. In short, he is totally opposed to what the Boric government has been doing for the past four years.
Evelyn Rose Matthei Fornet: She is an economist and a figure of the traditional right (like former President Sebastián Piñera), she is a member of the Independent Democratic Union Party (UDI). Her program and campaign are centered on the issue of growing insecurity. Matthei Fornet is in favor of Keynesian economics and is conservative (anti-abortion, she rejects same-sex marriage, etc.). She is supported by four right-wing parties: her own party (UDI), National Revival (RN), Evopolis and the Democrat. The four parties decided to join their forces under the pact “Great and United Chile”.
Conclusion
With less than four months left until 2026, the political landscape in Latin America is somewhat unclear. Things seem to be changing…We seem to be at a turning point.
In 2022, the region experimented a new turn to the left but in 2025, in Bolivia, Honduras, and Chile, the left has been weakened and public opinion is polarized. The political map of Latin America appears to be gradually shifting to the right again.
Three presidential elections will be held in 2026: in Colombia, Brazil, and Peru. In January we will discuss these elections and the issues at stake! We will also address the specific cases of Cuba and Nicaragua. See you all in January!
#latinamerica #latam #bolivia #honduras #chile #election #presidentialelection #election2025 #gabrielboric #evomorales #luisarce #politics
Bibliography
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Honduras: La Alta Comisionada pide garantizar unas elecciones pacíficas y transparentes | Noticias ONU. (n.d.). Retrieved September 21, 2025, from https://news.un.org/es/story/2021/11/1500372
Honduras: panorama general. (n.d.). Retrieved September 21, 2025, from https://www.bancomundial.org/es/country/honduras/overview
Jara lidera la primera vuelta con 26% y es seguida por Kast con 24%, que ha retrocedido 6 puntos en los últimos 2 meses - Sitio Web Cadem. (n.d.). Retrieved September 24, 2025, from https://cadem.cl/estudios/jara-lidera-la-primera-vuelta-con-26-y-es-seguida-por-kast-con-24-que-ha-retrocedido-6-puntos-en-los-ultimos-2-meses/
OACNUDH expresa preocupación por los actos de violencia política en el contexto electoral e insta a Honduras a tomar medidas para garantizar elecciones pacíficas – OACNUDH. (n.d.). Retrieved September 21, 2025, from https://oacnudh.hn/oacnudh-expresa-preocupacion-por-los-actos-de-violencia-politica-en-el-contexto-electoral-e-insta-a-honduras-a-tomar-medidas-para-garantizar-elecciones-pacificas/
Presidente de la República, Gabriel Boric Font, promulga Ministerio de Seguridad Pública: “Estamos celebrando un logro para mejorar la calidad de vida de los chilenos y chilenas” - Ministerio del Interior. (n.d.). Retrieved September 24, 2025, from https://www.interior.gob.cl/noticias/2025/01/27/presidente-de-la-republica-gabriel-boric-font-promulga-ministerio-de-seguridad-publica-estamos-celebrando-un-logro-para-mejorar-la-calidad-de-vida-de-los-chilenos-y-chilenas/
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