2025 Ecuadorian General elections: new victory for Daniel Noboa

In April 2025, general elections were held in Ecuador, the first round took place on April 9, 2025 and the second round, in which President Daniel Noboa and candidate Luisa Gonzalez faced each other, took place on April 13, 2025. President Noboa won the elections with 55.63% of the vote (figures as of April 16, 2025). President Noboa will begin his first four-year presidential term on May 24, 2025, lasting until 2029.

The country is currently in a difficult situation: in addition to the economic and political crisis, Ecuador has also become one of the most dangerous countries on the continent and the institutions are filled with corrupt officials. Furthermore, the president's victory was contested by the opposition: Luisa Gonzalez denounces fraud in the results...What are the challenges that Ecuador and its new president will face?

Here's what you need to know about the situation in Ecuador and the results of the 2025 general elections. As always, you can find the (reliable) sources used to write this article at the end of this article. Let’s go!

Who is Daniel Noboa?

Daniel Noboa, president of the Republic of Ecuador since November 23, 2023 after being elected to complete the presidential term of Guillermo Lasso who announced the application of the “cross death” (“muerte cruzada” in Spanish) on May 17, 2023, a measure enshrined in the Constitution involving the dissolution of the National Assembly and the resignation of the president. The former president found himself stuck with an Assembly blocking all his decisions, making it impossible for the president to implement any type of reform in the country. 

At 37, Daniel Noboa is the youngest elected president of Ecuador. Before entering politics, he was a businessman, his father is the founder of the Noboa Corporation, one of the largest companies in the country. Noboa was a member of the National Assembly from 2021 to 2023 and announced his candidacy in 2023 to take over the presidency from Guillermo Lasso.

Before Lasso summons the cross death, Daniel Noboa already intended to participate in the 2025 presidential elections through the creation of his own party, but with the implementation of cross-death in May 2023, the latter did not have sufficient time to register his party with the National Electoral Council (CNE), so he participated in the elections by forming a coalition between the parties PID (“People, Equality and Democracy”, center right) and MOVER (center right in recent years, historically a party of left) under the name of “National Democratic Action” (ADN). Since May 2024, ADN has been an official party. Noboa was able to submit his candidacy through his own party for the 2025 general elections.

What is Daniel Noboa's ideology? 

Noboa's party and, in general, his words and goals are rather pro-liberal. His policy focuses on attracting private investment (especially foreign investment) and aims to reduce the role of the State in the economy. Several experts qualify his political speech as populist since, for instance, during the 2023 presidential campaign, Noboa presented himself as someone who does not belong to any political class, a rather typical argument of populist politicians. It should be clarified that the goal here is not to determine whether being populist is a good or bad thing. However, it seems pretty clear that, in fact, President Noboa's speech is populist. Its use of digital marketing tools and social networks has made it particularly popular with younger people. [1]. Just like Nayib Bukele in El Salvador or Donald Trump in the United States, Daniel Noboa is regularly active on social media and shares his daily life with his followers in order to feel closer to them.

If Noboa repeatedly declares not to be a right-wing politician, an academic article published by Staline Herrera and Anahi Macaroff in the journal Analysis and debate in 2023 [2] explains that the environment of the president and especially the composition of his own political party and government (businessmen, heads of prestigious universities or acquaintances from his professional network) does not suggest that Noboa could be center-left but rather right-wing. 

Key events of Daniel Noboa's first term (2023-2025)

Organized crime, drug trafficking and security issues

Since the beginning of 2024, Ecuador has once again been considered the most violent country in Latin America, and even in the entire American continent. According to a report by Dr. Daniel Montalvo of Vanderbilt University, “90% of crimes committed in Ecuador in 2023 go unpunished.” [3] 

On April 21, 2024, during the popular consultation convened by Daniel Noboa, the Ecuadorian people approved the president's nine security proposals. Daniel Noboa's strategy is based on an authoritarian policy of "mano dura" (“tough-on-crime”, in English), largely inspired by Nayib Bukele’s strategy in El Salvador. The consultation included, among others, the following questions [4] :

“Do you agree to authorize the complementary support of the armed forces in the functions of the national police to fight against organized crime, by partially reforming the Constitution?”

"Do you agree to allow the extradition of Ecuadorians, with the conditions, requirements, restrictions and obstacles established in the Constitution, international instruments and in the law, amending the Constitution and reforming the laws?

"Do you agree with the increase in sanctions for the crimes of: (i) terrorism and its financing, (ii) illicit production and trafficking of regulated substances subject to control, (iii) organized crime, (iv) murder, (v) contract killing, (vi) human trafficking, (vii) kidnapping for ransom, (viii) arms trafficking, (ix) money laundering and (x) illicit mining activity, by reforming the Organic Penal Code overall in accordance with the appendix to the question?"

“Do you agree with the criminalization of the crime of possession or carrying of weapons, ammunition or components intended for the exclusive use of the armed forces or the national police, without affecting firearms authorized for civilian use, by reforming the Integral Organic Penal Code in accordance with the appendix to the question?”

(translation from Spanish)

President Noboa received the support of the population and implemented his policy of “mano dura” and militarization aimed at solving the problem of increasing violence in Ecuador, linked in particular to the drug trafficking and illegal mining. Unfortunately, his policies have failed to substantially reduce homicide and crime rates in the country: 

First, if we take a look at the number of homicides committed between 2023 and 2024, according to data from the Ecuadorian Organized Crime Observatory (OECS), 3,037 homicides (murders, femicides, homicides, hitmen) were committed in 2024 compared to 8,581 in 2023. [5], corresponding to a 64% drop in the number of homicides. 

However, this improvement was short-lived. If we compare the figures corresponding to the number of intentional homicides [6] committed per year and per month established by the Special Commission for Statistics on Security, Justice, Crime and Transparency at the beginning of 2025, between November 2023 (beginning of Noboa’s first presidential term) and January 2025, the number of intentional homicides increased from 766 to 781, corresponding to an increase of 2%. Although this figure does not show a substantial increase in the homicide rate, what is really interesting to highlight is the evolution of this figure throughout President Noboa's first term:

Evolution of intentional homicides between november 2023 and january 2025

Indeed, Daniel Noboa's authoritarian policy proved to be effective at the beginning of his term with a 50% reduction in the number of homicides between November 2023 and February 2024. Nonetheless, we see that over time, the rate of homicides began to increase again until it exceeded in January 2025 the number of intentional homicides recorded in November 2023. 

At first, we might think that an increase in penalties and the deployment of the army in public spaces would definitively put an end to organized crime. Unfortunately in most cases, it is not like that and when it comes to Ecuador, the judiciary is very fragile and impunity is actually the biggest challenge that the country is facing. “Mano dura” style policies often ignore the relationship that exists between institutions and drug traffickers. Increasing sentence years won't make much difference if, in the end, criminals don't even get a trial and aren't found guilty. Even though the population feels safer due to the presence of the military in public spaces, the data shows that Ecuador has not become safer since the arrival of Noboa, quite the opposite. The issue of security has been one of the main goals of the president's first term, but so far the results have not been positive. 

Corruption

"(...)I think that when we are in a situation like this, that is to say in the middle of the fight against drug trafficking and  corruption, I believe that we should not trust anyone."

Daniel Noboa, April 1, 2025

A research article published by Pierre Des François and Tannia Cecilia Mayorga Jácome in the Colombian Review of Administrative Sciences in 2022 [7] explains that there is indeed a correlation between the corruption perception index and economic growth and that the evolution of corruption and economic growth follow the same trend. The authors also explain that several empirical studies have demonstrated a positive relationship between the degree of trade openness and lower levels of corruption. Similarly, in Ecuador, an increase in oil revenues generally leads to an increase in the perception of corruption. 

Other non-economic factors are also linked to corruption, such as poor quality of institutions and lack of transparency. The level of state intervention can influence corruption levels and, of course, low levels of education significantly increase corruption. There is no data allowing us to quantify the economic cost of corruption in Ecuador. [8]. However, in 2024, the corruption perception index in the country was 32 out of 100, which is very low. 

To conclude on this topic, in 2023, the Strategic Center for Geopolitics (CELAG) estimated that in 2021 money laundering represented US$3.5 billion.[9]. The CELAG study shows that this increase in money laundering coincides with the process of deregulation of the financial system undertaken and with the higher profit rates announced by the Ecuadorian central bank since 2017. CELAG estimates that in Ecuador, money laundering represents between 2% and 5% of GDP. 

Economy

Between 2023 and 2025, Ecuador has had to face several events, the first being the energy crisis. The numerous prolonged power outages in the country, caused by the worst drought in 60 years, have affected business productivity and, therefore, impacted the country's economic growth. According to the World Bank [10], economic growth is expected to go down by around 2.5% in 2024, notably due to the energy crisis, political uncertainty and high rates of violence. The IMF provided $4 billion in financial aid to Ecuador, partly responsible for the public debt-to-GDP ratio to increase by 56%. The country's international reserves, however, increased by $2.4 billion (5.7% of GDP) at the end of 2024. In terms of poverty and inequality, almost one in four Ecuadorians lives below the poverty line and one in ten lives in extreme poverty; inequality rates have barely changed over the past ten years.

Conclusion 

To sum up, Daniel Noboa will have to face pretty huge challenges…Although Luisa Gonzales denounced fraud during the election results, the CNE rejected this accusation. Likewise, the European Union, as well as the Organization of American States (OAS), notably through its Preliminary report of the OAS Electoral Observation Mission in Ecuador for the second round of presidential elections[11], do not support Gonzalez’s remarks. The OAS made some recommendations aimed at improving the country's electoral process but did not observe any undemocratic practices that could have influenced the election results. First victory for President Noboa and Ecuadorian democracy!

[1] Nasheli Morelia Briceño Ontaneda, Victor Roberto Soto Lopes, and Daniela Gallardo Ledesma, « Study of the Construction and Projection of the Image of Daniel Noboa for the Presidency of Ecuador in the 2023 Elections: Political Communication Strategies and their Impact on Public Opinion in the Province of Loja », Veritas Scientific Diffusion Magazine 6, nthe 1 (20 mars 2025): 1508‑28, https://doi.org/10.61616/rvdc.v6i1.470.

[2] HERRERA, Stalin and MACAROFF, Anahí. Daniel Noboa, the young president of Ecuador. Analysis and debate, 2023, vol. 57, https://www.rosalux.org.ec/pdfs/Daniel-noboa-joven-presidente-del-ecuador.pdf 

[3] MONTALVO, Daniel “Ecuador records the highest levels of crime, insecurity and delinquency on the continent” LAPOP Lab Vanderbilt University, accessed April 18, 2025, https://www.participacionciudadana.org/web/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/A1-Ecuador-registra-los-niveles-mas-altos-de-crimen.pdf

[4] «Referendum and Popular Consultation Questions 2024 – National Electoral Council – CNE Ecuador», consulted on April 18, 2025, https://www.cne.gob.ec/consulta-popular-y-referendum-2024/.

[5] "Homicidios en Ecuador", OECO (blog), consulté le 18 avril 2025, https://oeco.padf.org/visualizador-de-datos-numero-de-homicidios/.

[6] The Special Commission for Statistics on Security, Justice, Crime and Transparency defines a homicide as "the person who kills another. The act of depriving a man or woman of life, by proceeding with will and malice, without circumstances which excuse or legitimize, and without constituting murder." National Institute of Statistics and Censuses, « Justice and crime », National Institute of Statistics and Censuses, consulted on April 19, 2025, https://www.ecuadorencifras.gob.ec/justicia-y-crimen/.

[7] Desfrançois, P., and Mayorga, T. (2022). Corruption in Ecuador: An economic analysis. Colombian Review of Administrative Sciences, 4 (2), 8-25 https://doi.org/ 1052948/rcca.v4i2.614 

[8] “2024 Corruption Perceptions Index - Explore Ecuador’s Results”, Transparency.org, February 11, 2025, https://www.transparency.org/en/cpi/2024.

[9] Giordana García Sojo, «How much money is laundered in the Ecuadorian financial system. An approach from macroeconomic figures », CELAG (blog), January 14, 2023, https://www.celag.org/cuanto-dinero-se-lava-en-el-sistema-financiero-ecuatoriano-una-aproximacion-desde-las-cifras-macroeconomicas/.

[10] “Ecuador: general panorama”, Text/HTML, World Bank, accessed April 18, 2025, https://www.bancomundial.org/es/country/ecuador/overview.

[11] “Second Presidential Round in Ecuador 2025 Preliminary Report” OAS Electoral Observation Mission, accessed April 18, 2025, https://www.oas.org/fpdb/press/2025_MOE_Ecuador_Segunda_Vuelta_Preliminar_ESP.pdf